1. Executive Summary
GC Macro Review for April 2026
During April 2026, the Gold benchmark declined approximately 3.38% while our strategy delivered a positive return of +1.18%, outperforming by over 450 basis points. The precious metals complex faced headwinds from a continued monetary tightening cycle as central banks maintained their hawkish stance amid persistent inflationary pressures, while escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe provided only intermittent safe-haven support for gold prices. A sharp sell-off in the final week of April accelerated the benchmark's decline as profit-taking ahead of key economic data releases and month-end rebalancing pressures weighed on precious metals positioning.
Signal Performance Overview for April 2026
Trailing 12-month Sharpe 1.98 and return 13.91% (through the period in Table 3 below). During the report month, the Gold benchmark rose approximately -3.38%; the strategy returned +1.18% over the same window. The risk profile remains highly consistent with the previous period, maintaining an identical maximum drawdown of -3.81% while experiencing only a marginal decline in win rate from 56.75% to 56.39%. This represents a stable risk posture with minimal deterioration in trade success frequency, suggesting the strategy's risk management framework continues to perform within established parameters.
Signal Coverage — Gold
| Asset Class | Trading Symbol | Name |
|---|---|---|
| Futures | GC | Gold Futures (COMEX) |
2. Trading Strategy
In order to produce the metrics below we use the signal in combination with the trading strategy below:
- Leverage: No leverage is applied for this strategy and metrics
- Positions:
- Entry positions: Every 5 minutes (between 09:45 and 15:30 ET) we decide to take a long, short or no position using 1/70 of our starting portfolio for the day (there are 70 possible openings per day). Each long/short position is then split into 5 parts and executed on each minute for the next 5 minutes following the decision. There is no sizing adjustment.
- Exit positions: We exit all positions at the end of the day. The exits are split over five minutes (15:55–16:00 ET).
- Costs: 1.5 bp round-turn assumption. Extra exchange/clearing fees not included.
- Contract series & roll: Front-month continuous. Switch at the open T–10 trading days before expiration; stop trading the expiring contract and start trading the next.
For detailed examples, flowcharts, and a full walkthrough of the trading strategy, see Benchmark Trading Strategy.
3. Model Training Data and Timeframe
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Model Family | Pythia |
| Version | v0.5.0 |
| Exchange | CME Globex |
| Data | Level II Limit Order Book (10 levels) |
| Retrained Time Period | 21Q1 to 24Q4 |
| Final Validation Period | 25Q1 to 26Q1 |
4. Performance Metrics
Table 1: Monthly Return and Win Rate Metrics (Last 12 Months)
| Month | Return (%) | Win Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 YTD | 7.842 | 57.575 |
| 2026 Apr | 1.137 | 55.014 |
| 2026 Mar | 3.108 | 57.767 |
| 2026 Feb | -0.364 | 58.322 |
| 2026 Jan | 3.004 | 56.098 |
| 2025 Dec | -0.925 | 48.017 |
| 2025 Nov | 0.368 | 51.547 |
| 2025 Oct | 3.039 | 66.275 |
| 2025 Sep | -0.297 | 44.230 |
| 2025 Aug | -0.084 | 52.461 |
| 2025 Jul | 0.852 | 57.582 |
| 2025 Jun | -0.409 | 53.080 |
| 2025 May | 3.138 | 73.522 |
Table 2: Year over Year Performance Comparison
| Month | Return (%) | Win Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | 1.137 | 55.014 |
| Apr 2025 | 1.542 | 60.356 |
| Apr 2024 | 2.518 | 53.170 |
Table 3: 12-Months Ending Performance
| Metric | 12 months ending Apr 2026 | 12 months ending Mar 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe | 1.982 | 2.081 | -0.099 |
| Ann Return (%) | 13.912 | 14.517 | -0.606 |
| Win Rate (%) | 56.392 | 56.755 | -0.363 |
| Max DD (%) | -3.808 | -3.808 | 0.000 |
| Volatility | 6.828 | 6.969 | -0.141 |
| Calmar | 3.554 | 3.808 | -0.254 |
Figure 1: Cumulative equity curve showing the trading strategy net long/short performance compared with the GC price (100 = Apr 01, 2026)
5. Next Steps
Download historical predictions for this month using the Client API and confirm performance in your own test harness.
- Sign-up: Start Free Trial
- API Documentation: https://quantumsignals.ai/documentation
6. Contact
Please reach out with any questions or comments at: info[at]quantumsignals.ai