Alpha Report
Gold | July 2026

1. Executive Summary

GC Macro Review for July 2026

Gold edged marginally lower in July 2026, with the benchmark declining approximately 0.10% on a rebased basis as the Federal Reserve held rates steady but signaled a cautious, data-dependent path toward eventual easing, a posture that tempered safe-haven demand without fully removing it. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed uncertainty around U.S.-China trade relations provided intermittent support to the metal mid-month, though a late-month risk-on rotation, driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, weighed on gold into month-end and capped any meaningful recovery. Against this backdrop, the strategy returned -0.16%, modestly underperforming the benchmark by approximately 6 basis points, reflecting positioning that was unable to fully offset the late-month softness in price action.

Signal Performance Overview for July 2026

Trailing 12-month Sharpe 1.477 and return 12.100% (through the period in Table 3 below). During the report month, the Gold benchmark (rebased series, see Figure 1) declined approximately 0.10%; the strategy returned -0.16% over the same window. Drawdown held steady at -4.30% across both windows, signaling consistent capital preservation, while the win rate edged marginally lower from 54.06% to 53.71%, a negligible drift that leaves the strategy's directional accuracy essentially unchanged. Overall, the current period feels broadly stable relative to the prior window, with no meaningful deterioration in either loss containment or trade-level consistency.

Signal Coverage — Gold

2. Trading Strategy

In order to produce the metrics below we use the signal in combination with the trading strategy below:

• Leverage: No leverage is applied for this strategy and metrics
• Positions:
  • Entry positions: Every 5 minutes (between 09:45 and 15:30 ET) we decide to take a long, short or no position using 1/69 of our starting portfolio for the day (there are 69 possible openings per day). Each long/short position is then split into 5 parts and executed on each minute for the next 5 minutes following the decision. There is no sizing adjustment.
  • Exit positions: We exit all positions at the end of the day. The exits are split over five minutes (15:55–16:00 ET).
• Costs: 1.5 bp round-turn assumption. Extra exchange/clearing fees not included.
• Contract series & roll: Front-month continuous. Switch at the open T–5 trading days before expiration; stop trading the expiring contract and start trading the next.

For detailed examples, flowcharts, and a full walkthrough of the trading strategy, see Benchmark Trading Strategy.

3. Model Training Data and Timeframe

4. Performance Metrics

Table 1: Monthly Return and Win Rate Metrics (Last 12 Months)

Table 2: Year over Year Performance Comparison

Table 3: 12-Months Ending Performance

Figure 1: Cumulative equity curve showing the trading strategy net long/short performance compared with the GC price (100 = July 01, 2026)

5. Next Steps

Download historical predictions for this month using the Client API and confirm performance in your own test harness.

• Sign-up: Start Free Trial
• API Documentation: https://quantumsignals.ai/documentation

6. Contact

Please reach out with any questions or comments at: info[at]quantumsignals.ai