1. Executive Summary
NQ Macro Review for April 2026
During April 2026, the Nasdaq-100 delivered a robust +14.05% return as technology stocks surged on renewed optimism around AI monetization and expectations of Federal Reserve easing following softer-than-expected inflation data mid-month. The rally accelerated into month-end after the Fed's April meeting signaled a more dovish stance, with Chair Powell indicating the central bank was prepared to cut rates if economic conditions warranted, marking a clear shift from the previous month's hawkish tone. Our strategy generated a modest +0.14% return over the same period, significantly underperforming the benchmark as our risk management protocols limited exposure during the sharp equity rally that followed geopolitical tensions easing in Eastern Europe.
Signal Performance Overview for April 2026
Trailing 12-month Sharpe 1.96 and return 9.03% (through the period in Table 3 below). During the report month, the Nasdaq-100 benchmark rose approximately 14.05%; the strategy returned +0.14% over the same window. The current period demonstrates improved risk management with maximum drawdown tightening to -3.08% from the previous -3.83%, though win rate declined modestly from 54.36% to 53.59%. Overall, the trading environment reflects a more controlled risk profile despite slightly less frequent winning positions compared to the prior 12-month window.
Signal Coverage — Nasdaq-100
| Asset Class | Trading Symbol | Name |
|---|---|---|
| Futures | NQ | Nasdaq 100 E-mini |
| Futures | MNQ | Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 |
| ETF | QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust |
2. Trading Strategy
In order to produce the metrics below we use the signal in combination with the trading strategy below:
- Leverage: No leverage is applied for this strategy and metrics
- Positions:
- Entry positions: Every 5 minutes (between 09:45 and 15:30 ET) we decide to take a long, short or no position using 1/70 of our starting portfolio for the day (there are 70 possible openings per day). Each long/short position is then split into 5 parts and executed on each minute for the next 5 minutes following the decision. There is no sizing adjustment.
- Exit positions: We exit all positions at the end of the day. The exits are split over five minutes (15:55–16:00 ET).
- Costs: 1 bp round-turn assumption. Extra exchange/clearing fees not included.
- Contract series & roll: Front-month continuous. Switch at the open T–5 trading days before expiration; stop trading the expiring contract and start trading the next.
For detailed examples, flowcharts, and a full walkthrough of the trading strategy, see Benchmark Trading Strategy.
3. Model Training Data and Timeframe
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Model Family | Pythia |
| Version | v0.3.0 |
| Exchange | CME Globex |
| Data | Level II Limit Order Book (10 levels) |
| Retrained Time Period | 24Q3 to 25Q3 |
| Final Validation Period | 25Q4 |
4. Performance Metrics
Table 1: Monthly Return and Win Rate Metrics (Last 12 Months)
| Month | Return (%) | Win Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 YTD | 1.309 | 51.760 |
| 2026 Apr | 0.002 | 46.921 |
| 2026 Mar | 0.458 | 50.401 |
| 2026 Feb | -0.725 | 49.038 |
| 2026 Jan | 1.600 | 59.569 |
| 2025 Dec | 0.444 | 56.146 |
| 2025 Nov | 1.040 | 48.970 |
| 2025 Oct | 0.695 | 49.452 |
| 2025 Sep | 2.698 | 72.733 |
| 2025 Aug | 0.789 | 56.575 |
| 2025 Jul | 0.770 | 53.983 |
| 2025 Jun | 0.612 | 48.113 |
| 2025 May | 0.241 | 48.117 |
Table 2: Year over Year Performance Comparison
| Month | Return (%) | Win Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | 0.002 | 46.921 |
| Apr 2025 | 10.605 | 56.335 |
| Apr 2024 | -2.225 | 48.571 |
Table 3: 12-Months Ending Performance
| Metric | 12 months ending Apr 2026 | 12 months ending Mar 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe | 1.962 | 2.220 | -0.258 |
| Ann Return (%) | 9.026 | 20.332 | -11.306 |
| Win Rate (%) | 53.591 | 54.364 | -0.773 |
| Max DD (%) | -3.075 | -3.834 | +0.759 |
| Volatility | 4.735 | 8.790 | -4.055 |
| Calmar | 3.021 | 5.090 | -2.069 |
Figure 1: Cumulative equity curve showing the trading strategy net long/short performance compared with the NQ price (100 = Apr 01, 2026)
5. Next Steps
Download historical predictions for this month using the Client API and confirm performance in your own test harness.
- Sign-up: Start Free Trial
- API Documentation: https://quantumsignals.ai/documentation
6. Contact
Please reach out with any questions or comments at: info[at]quantumsignals.ai