Alpha Report
Equities
Portfolio (Equal Weight)
2022–2026

Market SectorEquity IndexModelPythia-v0.12.0SignalComposite
Date FromJan 03 2022Date ToSep 28 2026
Published Oct 13, 2026

1. Executive Summary

CategoryValue
PORTFOLIOEquities, equal weight
SIGNALSES, NQ, RTY, YM
WEIGHTINGequal weight
MODELPythia-v0.12.0 committees, one per signal and year (see each signal's report)

This report shows the combined performance of a fixed-weight portfolio built from the independent signal backtests of the multi-year signal reports. Each signal is backtested on its own on the same capital. To combine them, we:

  1. Take each signal's minute-by-minute equity curve for the year
  2. Normalize each curve so it starts at 1.0
  3. Weight and sum the normalized curves
  4. Scale the result back to the portfolio capital

Weights are set at the start of each year, when each year's walk-forward committee starts, and are not rebalanced within the year. Portfolio metrics are computed on the combined curve with the same definitions as the signal reports.

2. Portfolio Composition

Weights, set at the start of each year:

Table 1: Portfolio weights by year

SymbolAsset20222023202420252026
ESS&P 500 futures25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%
NQNasdaq-100 futures25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%
RTYRussell 2000 futures25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%
YMDow Jones Industrial Average futures25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%

3. Trading Strategy

Each signal trades as defined in Section 2 of its own report, on fixed capital:

Table 2: Trading schedule and costs by symbol

SymbolDecisions (ET)Decisions per dayExit (ET)Cost bp per side
ES09:45–15:256915:55–16:000.50
NQ09:45–15:256915:55–16:000.50
RTY09:45–15:256915:55–16:001.00
YM09:45–15:256915:55–16:000.75

4. Performance Metrics: walk-forward, 2022 – 2026

4.1 Return and Risk Metrics

Return is the actual return over each quarter or year (not annualized); Sharpe is per session on fixed capital; Win % is the weight-averaged win rate of the signals. 2026 runs to 2026-09-28.

Table 3: Quarterly and Annual Metrics

QuarterFoldReturn %SharpeWin %CalmarAnn. Vol %MDD %
2026F15.6512.11554.9284.1493.703-1.803
26Q3F11.3432.56558.9203.2652.170-1.653
26Q2F12.6212.65353.0495.8494.263-1.833
26Q1F11.6871.57353.7384.8384.493-1.407
2025F27.0070.89254.2481.1538.313-5.907
25Q4F2-0.106-0.17248.937-0.3102.394-1.328
25Q3F20.3340.65152.9121.1291.985-1.136
25Q2F26.4961.73760.9845.11919.423-5.493
25Q1F20.2840.34551.2600.6503.286-1.726
2024F3-2.006-0.65148.221-0.5542.975-3.523
24Q4F3-1.267-1.32640.922-1.6103.569-2.996
24Q3F30.2590.40351.0740.5132.464-1.935
24Q2F30.4480.67753.5241.5312.607-1.142
24Q1F3-1.446-1.83847.605-2.7752.990-2.039
2023F44.8371.15356.5311.3674.302-3.469
23Q4F42.5313.89160.45913.2132.795-0.783
23Q3F41.1391.27856.7613.8093.599-1.178
23Q2F41.6152.27557.4785.4952.930-1.185
23Q1F4-0.448-0.27252.116-0.5056.428-3.469
2022F56.1180.87052.4061.3797.091-4.330
22Q4F50.8390.52549.9321.1646.557-2.873
22Q3F51.2181.13855.0543.3154.231-1.427
22Q2F53.2981.46054.7303.6429.928-3.742
22Q1F50.7630.40049.7960.8117.670-3.747

Figure 1: Cumulative equity from $1,000,000, quarterly returns compounded from 22Q1 (out-of-sample)

$1,000,000 to $1,236,261 (+23.6%)

The curve compounds the quarterly returns from $1,000,000 for illustration. The strategy metrics in this report assume fixed capital, so the ending value is not the sum of the quarterly returns.

4.2 Participation, Recall and Effective Leverage

Participation, Recall and Hit rate are the weight-averaged values of the signals; Recall is ½ (recall UP + recall DOWN) on the slots each signal traded (a coin flip scores 50%). Effective Leverage is the weighted sum of the signals' Effective Leverage, the portfolio's average gross exposure relative to its capital.

Table 4: Quarterly and Annual Participation, Recall and Effective Leverage

QuarterFoldParticipation %Recall %Hit rate %Effective Leverage (x)
2026F134.9456.4956.310.190
26Q3F131.7958.7159.440.171
26Q2F145.3952.2953.640.244
26Q1F127.5557.2457.320.156
2025F242.9555.0555.500.225
25Q4F239.5848.2650.330.213
25Q3F237.6954.3054.270.195
25Q2F255.7560.1861.170.290
25Q1F238.8051.8953.610.205
2024F337.5248.7848.890.202
24Q4F340.8441.9742.370.225
24Q3F329.7752.1151.610.159
24Q2F342.9351.1153.720.227
24Q1F336.6250.2047.940.196
2023F447.9856.5156.690.249
23Q4F443.2460.1160.270.214
23Q3F444.1457.9457.000.228
23Q2F454.5258.2757.840.288
23Q1F450.0351.7852.260.268
2022F539.2252.2652.760.206
22Q4F535.6850.6750.190.187
22Q3F532.9153.4055.530.171
22Q2F546.9754.4655.130.246
22Q1F541.4750.3150.080.219

4.3 Portfolio and signals by year

Table 5: Annual Sharpe of the portfolio and of each signal

YearPortfolioESNQRTYYM
20262.121.291.982.322.16
20250.890.670.381.491.01
2024-0.65-1.17-0.670.11-0.92
20231.151.221.010.721.38
20220.870.910.451.100.91

5. Next Steps

Download historical predictions using the Client API and confirm performance in your own test harness:

6. Contact

Please reach out with any questions or comments at: info[at]quantumsignals.ai

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