Alpha Report
Silver | May 2026

1. Executive Summary

SI Macro Review for May 2026

During May 2026, the Silver benchmark declined 0.17% while our strategy underperformed with a -2.62% return, as heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and ongoing trade disputes with China weighed on industrial metals demand. The Federal Reserve's continued monetary tightening trajectory, with markets pricing in additional rate hikes following hawkish commentary from key officials, pressured precious metals as real yields remained elevated. A sharp sell-off in the final week of May, driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data that reinforced the Fed's hawkish stance, contributed to the month's negative performance across both the benchmark and strategy.

Signal Performance Overview for May 2026

Trailing 12-month Sharpe 1.01 and return 15.58% (through the period in Table 3 below). During the report month, the Silver benchmark declined approximately 0.17%; the strategy returned -2.62% over the same window. The strategy maintained its maximum drawdown at -7.70% while experiencing a modest decline in win rate from 53.79% to 51.78%, indicating slightly less consistent trade execution despite stable downside risk control. The current period reflects a marginally more challenging environment with reduced hit rates, though the unchanged drawdown ceiling demonstrates effective risk management discipline.

Signal Coverage — Silver

2. Trading Strategy

In order to produce the metrics below we use the signal in combination with the trading strategy below:

• Leverage: No leverage is applied for this strategy and metrics
• Positions:
  • Entry positions: Every 5 minutes (between 09:45 and 15:30 ET) we decide to take a long, short or no position using 1/70 of our starting portfolio for the day (there are 70 possible openings per day). Each long/short position is then split into 5 parts and executed on each minute for the next 5 minutes following the decision. There is no sizing adjustment.
  • Exit positions: We exit all positions at the end of the day. The exits are split over five minutes (15:55–16:00 ET).
• Costs: 3.0 bp round-turn assumption. Extra exchange/clearing fees not included.
• Contract series & roll: Front-month continuous. Switch at the open T–10 trading days before expiration; stop trading the expiring contract and start trading the next.

For detailed examples, flowcharts, and a full walkthrough of the trading strategy, see Benchmark Trading Strategy.

3. Model Training Data and Timeframe

4. Performance Metrics

Table 1: Monthly Return and Win Rate Metrics (Last 12 Months)

Table 2: Year over Year Performance Comparison

Table 3: 12-Months Ending Performance

Figure 1: Cumulative equity curve showing the trading strategy net long/short performance compared with the SI price (100 = May 01, 2026)

5. Next Steps

Download historical predictions for this month using the Client API and confirm performance in your own test harness.

• Sign-up: Start Free Trial
• API Documentation: https://quantumsignals.ai/documentation

6. Contact

Please reach out with any questions or comments at: info[at]quantumsignals.ai