The Road Ahead for Quantum Computing: Embracing Realism and Innovation

Summary: At Quantum Signals, we strongly believe in the transformative power of quantum technology. Our business approach begins with a fully classical AI solution, enabling us to prove our value proposition and establish revenue streams with customers today. Simultaneously, we are dedicated to advancing quantum and quantum-inspired AI methods, ready to integrate them into our pipeline when the technology reaches maturity.

A Quantum Reality Check

Let us start off by saying that we firmly believe in the transformative potential of quantum technology. Quantum computers will inevitably bring about monumental shifts in technology and impact all aspects of our daily lives. That's why we've set out to build a quantum computing company, albeit with a distinct approach that balances quantum ambition with classical pragmatism.

If we want to do a reality check, then it is important to recognize that: 1) quantum computing applications need to outperform the current state-of-the-art, i.e., solutions using GPUs and 2) we're still a few years away from seeing quantum computing applications deliver tangible value at competitive prices. While some experts might optimistically estimate a 3-5 year timeline to commercial impact, the reality is that we've been hearing this same projection for several years now.

For those of us building the future of quantum computing, it's crucial to face this reality with clarity. Quantum startups can and should engage in the necessary research to solve key problems and can thrive by collaborating with research institutions, other quantum companies, and by tapping into government funding. Most startups must also be transparent with their investors and set the right expectations. They need to embrace the fact that they are deep tech companies and that they will not see traditional ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) until the technology matures. Moreover, they will need to have enough runway to survive the next 5-10 years.

The hard truth is that commercial revenue growth from enterprise customers for most quantum computing companies still remains a distant goal.

The Hype and the Hangover

A few years ago, we witnessed a wave of excitement as commercial enterprises began exploring quantum computing. From 2019 to 2022, it seemed like the dawn of quantum adoption was imminent. Startups flourished, quantum hardware companies achieved significant milestones, and CTOs of large enterprises proudly announced their quantum initiatives. It was a thrilling time for the quantum community.

During this period, we were able to convince Fortune 100 companies to invest in "Quantum Insurance"—the idea that they needed to explore quantum technology now to avoid being blindsided by the next wave of disruption. In retrospect, this was the peak of the hype cycle for quantum computing.

However, as time went on, it became clear that these early efforts were more about satisfying curiosity and ticking the "quantum box" than delivering real value. Many of these projects yielded interesting results that showcased what is possible and led to new discoveries. Unfortunately, it became clear that there were few, if any, practical applications and in most cases the business units involved couldn’t justify a steady budget for quantum computing. In the end, further projects would have to wait until a fully functioning quantum computer with vastly improved qubits becomes available.

Today, only a handful of enterprises are still seriously exploring quantum computing, supported by dedicated teams and actual budgets. While these companies will gain an edge when quantum technology matures, the majority of businesses have decided to stay by the sidelines  and are waiting to see tangible value before considering adopting quantum solutions. 

Adding to the shift away from quantum is the rapid rise of generative AI (GenAI). Businesses are captivated by the real, immediate results that AI can deliver, leading many to divert their attention and budgets toward AI initiatives that can be implemented today.

A Quantum Startup's Path Forward

In the quantum industry, the prevailing approach has often been to see how much of a business problem can fit into the few, error-prone qubits currently available. The objective is to then start scaling up the solution with better software and hardware until it can get to the point where it can be used by an end user. 

At Quantum Signals we're taking a different path. Instead of starting small and gradually scaling up, we're beginning with a fully classical computational pipeline, leveraging the latest AI techniques and GPUs. This allows us to validate our value proposition and business case with customers right now and start building revenue streams.

At the same time we are working tirelessly on quantum and quantum-inspired AI methods and we are prepared to inject them into our pipeline when the time is right. We believe the synergy of AI and quantum technologies will be the next frontier in computational power and our goal is to lead the way towards such Quantum Intelligence. 

To conclude, we deeply respect the innovative spirit of quantum startups and their unique approaches to advancing this cutting-edge field. Building a tech company while driving quantum research forward is no easy feat, and it requires a truly exceptional team. At Quantum Signals, we aim to showcase our own approach in creating a successful business and at the same time lead the quantum revolution. After all, the diversity of ideas and paths is what makes this journey so exciting and pushes the entire industry forward.